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Jay DeSart (History and Political Science): Presidential Election Forecasting

Over the past few elections I have developed a Presidential election forecast model that is designed to generate predictions of state-level election outcomes (and national-level extrapolations of both the Electoral College and popular vote result) a month in advance of the election. This year, the model predicts that President Obama will win reelection with 53.13% of the national two-party popular vote and 332 Electoral Votes.

Based on these results, the model predicts that Obama has a 98.8% probability of winning the election.


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