The table below lays out the electoral college landscape based on the state win probabilities generated by the latest run of our election forecast model. It presents what our model suggests are the most likely paths that either Barack Obama or John McCain will need to take in order to get to the to the 270 Electoral Votes necessary to win the presidency.
The states are arranged in order of the probability that the model predicts that they will be won by Barack Obama. Based on these results, it is easy to see that John McCain's path to 270 is far more daunting and limited than that for Barack Obama. The model suggests that Colorado is the key tipping point state, the state that will put either candidate over the top in the Electoral College. The good news for Obama is that the model projects that, with a win probability of 88.2%, he should win that state relatively easily. The model suggests that he can win the White House even while losing the key battleground states of Florida and Ohio.
For McCain, however, the picture is far more bleak. Not only does he need to win all the states that the model projects he will win (including North Carolina, which the model suggests is a virtual toss-up), plus at least 6 other states that the model projects will be won by Obama: Missouri, Florida, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio and Colorado (shown in the gray area in McCain's column in the table). If McCain loses just one of these states, his chances of winning become substantially more difficult, if not virtually impossible. He must then attempt to pick off states that the model suggests are firmly in Obama's column.
States to Watch, and When
7:00 PM EST
One of the keys to look for early on election night will be Virginia. If the model is correct and Obama wins Virginia, the night will become substantially more difficult for McCain. He will need to sweep those gray states, and then some. The polls in Indiana will all be closed by this time as well. If Obama manages to pull off an upset here (the model only gives him an 17.8% chance of winning), then it should be a very quick night.
7:30 PM EST Ohio and North Carolina, then become absolutely imperative. If McCain fails to win both of these states, he will have pretty much run out of options; there simply aren't enough electoral votes that the model considers truly in play to get him across the goal-line.
8:00 PM EST
Provided that McCain is still holding on at this point, Missouri and Florida become the next focal point. These are both must-win states for McCain. If he fails to win both of them, his night is, for all intents and purposes, over.
9:00 PM EST
If the states mentioned so far have all gone to McCain or are still considered too close to call by 9:00 PM, then New Mexico and Colorado become front and center. If McCain doesn't pull out a victory in Pennsylvania they are must-wins for McCain.
Ultimately, McCain's path to victory is built on a very shaky foundation according to the model. If just one of the pieces falls, the game is pretty much over.
