| Obama | McCain |
| State | Win Probability | State | Win Probability |
| Missouri | 69.9 | North Carolina | 53.3 |
| Florida | 75.9 | West Virginia | 72.2 |
| Virginia | 79.1 | Arizona | 78.7 |
| Nevada | 85.5 | Indiana | 82.2 |
| Ohio | 85.7 | Georgia | 86.1 |
| Colorado | 88.2 | North Dakota | 86.3 |
| New Mexico | 98.0 | Montana | 87.4 |
| New Hampshire | 98.6 | Arkansas | 88.5 |
| Wisconsin | 99.1 | Louisiana | 94.7 |
| Pennsylvania | 99.4 | South Dakota | 97.6 |
| Iowa | 99.5 | Kentucky | 99.3 |
| Minnesota | 99.8 | Tennessee | 99.6 |
| Oregon | 99.9 | Mississippi | 99.6 |
| Michigan | 99.9 | Texas | 99.8 |
| Washington | 100 | South Carolina | 99.9 |
| Connecticut | 100 | Kansas | 99.9 |
| Maine | 100 | Alaska | 100 |
| Delaware | 100 | Alabama | 100 |
| New Jersey | 100 | Nebraska | 100 |
| California | 100 | Wyoming | 100 |
| Maryland | 100 | Oklahoma | 100 |
| Rhode Island | 100 | Idaho | 100 |
| Illinois | 100 | Utah | 100 |
| Vermont | 100 |
| Massachusetts | 100 |
| New York | 100 |
| Hawaii | 100 |
| DC | 100 |
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