DeSart and Holbrook Rolling October Forecast

October 31st - State Win Probabilities

ClintonTrump
StateWin
Probability
StateWin
Probability
North Carolina53.5Arizona63.9
Iowa54.7Georgia68.1
Ohio56.3Missouri79.5
Florida62.6South Carolina87.2
Nevada65.4Indiana88.2
Colorado72.1Texas89.5
Wisconsin78.7Mississippi89.8
Virginia79.3Alaska93.9
Pennsylvania80.6Tennessee94.7
New Hampshire81.4Louisiana96.0
Minnesota85.2Montana96.5
Michigan87.1Kansas96.9
New Mexico88.3South Dakota97.4
Oregon92.3Arkansas98.4
Maine94.9Alabama98.7
Washington96.6Nebraska99.3
Connecticut97.1North Dakota99.3
Delaware97.4Kentucky99.4
New Jersey98.5West Virginia99.5
Illinois99.4Utah99.5
Rhode Island99.5Idaho99.9
New York99.9Oklahoma99.9
Maryland99.9Wyoming100
California99.9
Hawaii100
Massachusetts100
Vermont100
DC100


Based on these state win probabilities, the distribution of possible Electoral College outcomes looks like this:

Ultimately, the model suggests that Secretary Clinton has a 95.9% probability of winning, at a minimum,
the necessary 270 Electoral Votes she needs in order to win the election.
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