DeSart and Holbrook Rolling October Forecast

October 29th - State Win Probabilities

ClintonTrump
StateWin
Probability
StateWin
Probability
North Carolina53.7Arizona63.9
Iowa56.4Georgia67.9
Ohio58.6Missouri79.5
Florida65.4Indiana87.5
Nevada67.2South Carolina88.7
Colorado73.8Texas90.0
Wisconsin79.5Mississippi91.0
Virginia80.0Tennessee94.8
Pennsylvania80.7South Dakota95.6
New Hampshire81.0Louisiana95.7
Minnesota84.3Alaska95.9
New Mexico87.3Montana97.0
Michigan88.4Kansas97.0
Oregon91.8Arkansas98.6
Maine95.1Alabama98.7
Washington96.2North Dakota99.1
Connecticut97.3West Virginia99.2
Delaware97.6Kentucky99.2
New Jersey98.3Nebraska99.2
Illinois99.4Utah99.6
Rhode Island99.6Oklahoma99.9
Maryland99.8Idaho99.9
New York99.9Wyoming100
California99.9
Massachusetts99.9
Hawaii100
Vermont100
DC100


Based on these state win probabilities, the distribution of possible Electoral College outcomes looks like this:

Ultimately, the model suggests that Secretary Clinton has a 96.4% probability of winning, at a minimum,
the necessary 270 Electoral Votes she needs in order to win the election.
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