DeSart and Holbrook Rolling October Forecast

October 29th - State Win Probabilities

ObamaRomney
StateWin
Probability
StateWin
Probability
Ohio67.8Colorado50.5
New Hampshire72.0Florida52.7
Nevada74.4Virginia55.0
Iowa76.8North Carolina81.4
Wisconsin83.6Arizona92.0
Pennsylvania88.7Missouri95.0
Michigan93.6Georgia97.5
Minnesota96.1South Dakota97.8
Oregon97.4Montana99.3
New Mexico98.4South Carolina99.7
Maine99.5Indiana99.9
Washington99.7Kentucky100
New Jersey99.8Tennessee100
Connecticut99.9Texas100
California100Mississippi100
Delaware100West Virginia100
Illinois100Kansas100
Maryland100Nebraska100
Massachusetts100North Dakota100
New York100Louisiana100
Rhode Island100Arkansas100
Hawaii100Oklahoma100
Vermont100Alabama100
DC100Alaska100
Wyoming100
Idaho100
Utah100


Based on these state win probabilities, the distribution of possible Electoral College outcomes looks like this:

Ultimately, the model suggests that President Obama has a 86.82% probability of winning, at a minimum,
the necessary 270 Electoral Votes he needs in order to win re-election.
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