DeSart and Holbrook Rolling October Forecast

October 29^th - State Win Probabilities

Obama Romney State Win Probability State Win Probability Ohio 67.8 Colorado 50.5 New Hampshire 72.0 Florida 52.7 Nevada 74.4 Virginia 55.0 Iowa 76.8 North Carolina 81.4 Wisconsin 83.6 Arizona 92.0 Pennsylvania 88.7 Missouri 95.0 Michigan 93.6 Georgia 97.5 Minnesota 96.1 South Dakota 97.8 Oregon 97.4 Montana 99.3 New Mexico 98.4 South Carolina 99.7 Maine 99.5 Indiana 99.9 Washington 99.7 Kentucky 100 New Jersey 99.8 Tennessee 100 Connecticut 99.9 Texas 100 California 100 Mississippi 100 Delaware 100 West Virginia 100 Illinois 100 Kansas 100 Maryland 100 Nebraska 100 Massachusetts 100 North Dakota 100 New York 100 Louisiana 100 Rhode Island 100 Arkansas 100 Hawaii 100 Oklahoma 100 Vermont 100 Alabama 100 DC 100 Alaska 100 Wyoming 100 Idaho 100 Utah 100

Based on these state win probabilities, the distribution of possible Electoral College outcomes looks like this:

Ultimately, the model suggests that President Obama has a 86.82% probability of winning, at a minimum,
the necessary 270 Electoral Votes he needs in order to win re-election.
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