DeSart and Holbrook Rolling October Forecast

October 28th - State Win Probabilities

ClintonTrump
StateWin
Probability
StateWin
Probability
North Carolina53.5Arizona63.9
Iowa56.3Georgia68.0
Ohio58.4Missouri79.6
Florida65.3Indiana87.6
Nevada67.0South Carolina88.8
Colorado73.7Texas90.0
Wisconsin79.4Mississippi91.1
Virginia80.1Tennessee94.8
Pennsylvania80.8South Dakota95.6
New Hampshire80.9Louisiana95.7
Minnesota84.2Alaska95.9
New Mexico87.2Montana97.1
Michigan88.3Kansas97.1
Oregon91.8Arkansas98.6
Maine95.1Alabama98.7
Washington96.1North Dakota99.1
Connecticut97.2West Virginia99.2
Delaware97.6Kentucky99.2
New Jersey98.2Nebraska99.2
Illinois99.4Utah99.6
Rhode Island99.6Oklahoma99.9
Maryland99.8Idaho99.9
New York99.9Wyoming100
California99.9
Massachusetts99.9
Hawaii100
Vermont100
DC100


Based on these state win probabilities, the distribution of possible Electoral College outcomes looks like this:

Ultimately, the model suggests that Secretary Clinton has a 96.4% probability of winning, at a minimum,
the necessary 270 Electoral Votes she needs in order to win the election.
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