DeSart and Holbrook Rolling October Forecast

October 27th - State Win Probabilities

ClintonTrump
StateWin
Probability
StateWin
Probability
North Carolina53.3Arizona64.8
Iowa56.0Georgia64.8
Ohio58.5Missouri68.4
Florida63.9Indiana80.7
Nevada67.9South Carolina87.5
Colorado73.4Texas90.1
Wisconsin79.1Mississippi91.0
Virginia79.7Tennessee94.8
Pennsylvania80.1Louisiana95.6
New Hampshire80.5South Dakota95.6
Minnesota82.4Alaska95.9
New Mexico87.3Montana97.0
Michigan89.0Kansas97.1
Oregon89.9Arkansas98.6
Maine94.3Alabama98.7
Washington95.6North Dakota99.1
Connecticut96.7West Virginia99.2
Delaware97.0Kentucky99.2
New Jersey98.2Nebraska99.2
Illinois99.4Utah99.6
Rhode Island99.6Oklahoma99.9
Maryland99.7Idaho100
New York99.9Wyoming100
California99.9
Massachusetts99.9
Hawaii100
Vermont100
DC100


Based on these state win probabilities, the distribution of possible Electoral College outcomes looks like this:

Ultimately, the model suggests that Secretary Clinton has a 96.3% probability of winning, at a minimum,
the necessary 270 Electoral Votes she needs in order to win the election.
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