DeSart and Holbrook Rolling October Forecast

October 26th - State Win Probabilities

ClintonTrump
StateWin
Probability
StateWin
Probability
North Carolina52.8Arizona65.3
Iowa57.9Georgia68.4
Ohio59.6Missouri78.2
Florida63.8Indiana85.7
Nevada67.9Texas91.4
Colorado73.4South Carolina91.7
Virginia79.1Mississippi91.9
New Hampshire79.7South Dakota93.6
Wisconsin80.1Alaska94.8
Pennsylvania80.5Tennessee95.2
Minnesota82.4Louisiana95.3
New Mexico87.3Montana96.8
Michigan89.0Kansas97.2
Oregon89.9Arkansas98.4
Maine94.3Kentucky98.4
Washington95.6West Virginia98.4
Delaware96.7Alabama98.6
Connecticut97.0North Dakota99.0
New Jersey98.2Nebraska99.1
Illinois99.4Utah99.7
Maryland99.6Oklahoma99.9
Rhode Island99.7Idaho100
New York99.9Wyoming100
California99.9
Massachusetts99.9
Vermont100
Hawaii100
DC100


Based on these state win probabilities, the distribution of possible Electoral College outcomes looks like this:

Ultimately, the model suggests that Secretary Clinton has a 96.0% probability of winning, at a minimum,
the necessary 270 Electoral Votes she needs in order to win the election.
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