| Obama | McCain |
| State | Win
Probability | State | Win
Probability |
| Missouri | 74.7 | North Carolina | 51.0 |
| Nevada | 75.4 | West Virginia | 66.1 |
| Florida | 80.0 | Arkansas | 79.5 |
| Virginia | 80.9 | North Dakota | 83.6 |
| Ohio | 83.2 | Indiana | 87.6 |
| Colorado | 87.2 | Georgia | 90.4 |
| New Mexico | 96.3 | Montana | 94.3 |
| New Hampshire | 97.5 | South Dakota | 97.6 |
| Wisconsin | 99.0 | Kentucky | 98.8 |
| Minnesota | 99.6 | Louisiana | 98.9 |
| Iowa | 99.6 | Mississippi | 99.3 |
| Pennsylvania | 99.7 | South Carolina | 99.6 |
| Connecticut | 99.9 | Tennessee | 99.9 |
| Oregon | 99.9 | Kansas | 99.9 |
| Michigan | 100 | Texas | 100 |
| Maine | 100 | Arizona | 100 |
| Washington | 100 | Alaska | 100 |
| New Jersey | 100 | Alabama | 100 |
| Delaware | 100 | Nebraska | 100 |
| California | 100 | Wyoming | 100 |
| Illinois | 100 | Oklahoma | 100 |
| Maryland | 100 | Idaho | 100 |
| Rhode Island | 100 | Utah | 100 |
| New York | 100 |
| Massachusetts | 100 |
| Vermont | 100 |
| Hawaii | 100 |
| DC | 100 |
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