DeSart and Holbrook Rolling October Forecast

October 22nd - State Win Probabilities

ClintonTrump
StateWin
Probability
StateWin
Probability
Iowa52.4Arizona61.8
North Carolina53.3Georgia71.6
Ohio59.7Missouri78.2
Florida65.1Indiana85.3
Nevada68.0Mississippi91.5
Colorado74.9South Carolina92.0
Minnesota80.4Texas92.1
Wisconsin80.7Alaska93.8
New Hampshire81.0South Dakota94.0
Pennsylvania81.7Tennessee94.8
Virginia82.1Montana95.4
New Mexico88.2Louisiana95.4
Michigan89.9Kansas96.9
Oregon90.3West Virginia98.0
Maine94.2Kentucky98.2
Washington95.0Arkansas98.2
Delaware96.7Alabama98.7
Connecticut97.3North Dakota98.9
New Jersey98.3Nebraska99.1
Maryland99.7Utah99.6
Illinois99.7Oklahoma99.9
Rhode Island99.7Idaho100
New York99.9Wyoming100
Massachusetts99.9
California99.9
Hawaii100
Vermont100
DC100


Based on these state win probabilities, the distribution of possible Electoral College outcomes looks like this:

Ultimately, the model suggests that Secretary Clinton has a 96.5% probability of winning, at a minimum,
the necessary 270 Electoral Votes she needs in order to win the election.
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