DeSart and Holbrook Rolling October Forecast

October 20th - State Win Probabilities

ClintonTrump
StateWin
Probability
StateWin
Probability
North Carolina52.9Iowa50.9
Ohio60.4Arizona59.3
Florida64.3Georgia59.7
Nevada68.3Missouri74.3
Colorado75.0Texas86.9
Minnesota77.9Indiana87.0
Virginia80.6South Carolina90.7
Wisconsin81.0Mississippi92.9
New Hampshire81.9Louisiana93.1
Pennsylvania82.2Alaska93.8
New Mexico88.5South Dakota94.0
Michigan89.9Tennessee94.9
Oregon90.2Montana95.4
Maine94.0Kansas97.1
Washington95.7Arkansas98.6
Connecticut96.0Kentucky98.7
Delaware96.7Alabama98.9
New Jersey97.9North Dakota98.9
Illinois99.2West Virginia98.9
Maryland99.6Nebraska99.0
California99.7Utah99.7
Rhode Island99.7Oklahoma100
New York99.8Idaho100
Massachusetts99.9Wyoming100
Hawaii100
Vermont100
DC100


Based on these state win probabilities, the distribution of possible Electoral College outcomes looks like this:

Ultimately, the model suggests that Secretary Clinton has a 96.8% probability of winning, at a minimum,
the necessary 270 Electoral Votes she needs in order to win the election.
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