DeSart and Holbrook Rolling October Forecast

October 19th - State Win Probabilities

ClintonTrump
StateWin
Probability
StateWin
Probability
North Carolina53.3Iowa50.7
Ohio66.5Missouri72.2
Florida67.7Georgia73.4
Nevada68.4Arizona77.1
Colorado73.1Indiana86.3
Wisconsin76.5South Carolina90.8
New Hampshire78.3Alaska92.8
Minnesota78.3Mississippi93.0
Pennsylvania79.0South Dakota94.1
Virginia84.1Texas94.4
Oregon89.1Tennessee94.9
New Mexico90.1Montana95.6
Michigan90.9Louisiana95.8
Maine93.5Kansas97.4
Connectiut95.6Arkansas98.3
Washington96.4Kentucky98.7
Delaware96.7West Virginia98.8
New Jersey97.8North Dakota98.8
Illinois99.4Alabama98.9
Maryland99.5Nebraska99.0
Rhode Island99.6Utah99.5
California99.6Oklahoma100
New York99.6Idaho100
Massachusetts100Wyoming100
Hawaii100
Vermont100
DC100


Based on these state win probabilities, the distribution of possible Electoral College outcomes looks like this:

Ultimately, the model suggests that Secretary Clinton has a 97.6% probability of winning, at a minimum,
the necessary 270 Electoral Votes she needs in order to win the election.
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