DeSart and Holbrook Rolling October Forecast

October 18th - State Win Probabilities

ClintonTrump
StateWin
Probability
StateWin
Probability
North Carolina51.2Arizona59.7
Iowa54.0Missouri72.0
Ohio62.0Georgia73.2
Florida67.7Indiana86.7
Nevada68.1Texas89.3
Colorado75.0South Carolina90.7
New Hampshire76.0Louisiana92.2
Wisconsin78.4Alaska92.3
Minnesota79.2Mississippi93.0
Pennsylvania83.7South Dakota94.0
Virginia84.8Tennessee94.9
Oregon90.4Montana95.5
New Mexico91.0Kansas97.4
Michigan91.5Arkansas98.3
Maine93.6Kentucky98.6
Connectiut95.6West Virginia98.8
Washington96.5North Dakota98.8
Delaware96.8Alabama98.9
New Jersey97.7Nebraska99.0
Illinois99.5Utah99.6
Maryland99.6Oklahoma100
Rhode Island99.6Idaho100
New York99.6Wyoming100
California99.8
Massachusetts100
Vermont100
Hawaii100
DC100


Based on these state win probabilities, the distribution of possible Electoral College outcomes looks like this:

Ultimately, the model suggests that Secretary Clinton has a 97.1% probability of winning, at a minimum,
the necessary 270 Electoral Votes she needs in order to win the election.
BACK