DeSart and Holbrook Rolling October Forecast

October 16th - State Win Probabilities

ClintonTrump
StateWin
Probability
StateWin
Probability
North Carolina51.6Missouri72.1
Iowa53.9Georgia73.3
Ohio66.0Arizona77.0
Florida67.8Indiana86.2
Nevada68.5Texas89.3
Colorado73.0South Carolina90.8
New Hampshire75.9Alaska92.3
Wisconsin78.4Mississippi93.0
Minnesota79.1South Dakota94.1
Pennsylvania84.2Tennessee94.9
Virginia84.7Montana95.5
Michigan89.1Louisiana95.8
Oregon90.4Kansas97.4
New Mexico90.9Arkansas98.3
Maine93.5Kentucky98.6
Connectiut95.6West Virginia98.8
Washington96.4North Dakota98.8
Delaware96.8Alabama98.9
New Jersey97.8Nebraska99.0
California99.4Utah99.8
Illinois99.5Oklahoma100
Maryland99.6Idaho100
Rhode Island99.6Wyoming100
New York100
Massachusetts100
Vermont100
Hawaii100
DC100


Based on these state win probabilities, the distribution of possible Electoral College outcomes looks like this:

Ultimately, the model suggests that Secretary Clinton has a 96.5% probability of winning, at a minimum,
the necessary 270 Electoral Votes she needs in order to win the election.
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