DeSart and Holbrook Rolling October Forecast

October 14th - State Win Probabilities

ClintonTrump
StateWin
Probability
StateWin
Probability
North Carolina51.6Missouri72.1
Iowa53.8Georgia73.3
Ohio65.9Arizona77.1
Nevada66.6Indiana86.3
Florida67.8Texas89.4
Colorado73.2South Carolina90.8
New Hampshire75.9Alaska92.3
Wisconsin78.3Mississippi93.0
Virginia78.3South Dakota94.1
Minnesota79.1Tennessee94.9
Pennsylvania84.1Montana95.5
Michigan89.1Louisiana95.8
Oregon90.4Kansas97.4
New Mexico90.9Arkansas98.3
Maine93.5Kentucky98.6
Connectiut95.6West Virginia98.8
Washington96.4North Dakota98.8
Delaware96.8Alabama98.9
New Jersey97.8Nebraska99.0
California99.4Utah99.5
Illinois99.5Oklahoma100
Maryland99.6Idaho100
Rhode Island99.6Wyoming100
New York99.6
Massachusetts100
Vermont100
Hawaii100
DC100


Based on these state win probabilities, the distribution of possible Electoral College outcomes looks like this:

Ultimately, the model suggests that Secretary Clinton has a 96.1% probability of winning, at a minimum,
the necessary 270 Electoral Votes she needs in order to win the election.
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