| Obama | McCain |
| State | Win Probability | State | Win Probability |
| Virginia | 75.1 | North Carolina | 57.0 |
| Nevada | 79.6 | Arkansas | 79.2 |
| Missouri | 80.7 | North Dakota | 82.1 |
| Ohio | 84.7 | Indiana | 89.9 |
| Florida | 84.8 | Georgia | 91.8 |
| Colorado | 91.3 | Montana | 95.6 |
| New Mexico | 92.5 | Kentucky | 97.6 |
| West Virginia | 96.6 | Louisiana | 98.8 |
| New Hampshire | 97.9 | Mississippi | 99.3 |
| Wisconsin | 98.6 | South Carolina | 99.8 |
| Minnesota | 99.6 | Tennessee | 99.9 |
| Washington | 99.6 | South Dakota | 100 |
| Iowa | 99.7 | Arizona | 100 |
| Pennsylvania | 99.8 | Texas | 100 |
| Oregon | 99.9 | Alaska | 100 |
| Maine | 99.9 | Kansas | 100 |
| New Jersey | 99.9 | Alabama | 100 |
| Michigan | 99.9 | Nebraska | 100 |
| Delaware | 100 | Wyoming | 100 |
| California | 100 | Idaho | 100 |
| Connecticut | 100 | Oklahoma | 100 |
| Illinois | 100 | Utah | 100 |
| Maryland | 100 |
| Rhode Island | 100 |
| Massachusetts | 100 |
| New York | 100 |
| Vermont | 100 |
| Hawaii | 100 |
| DC | 100 |
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