| Obama | McCain |
| State | Win
Probability | State | Win
Probability |
| Missouri | 65.8 | North Carolina | 56.4 |
| Virginia | 77.3 | Arkansas | 79.4 |
| Ohio | 81.0 | Indiana | 90.0 |
| Nevada | 81.9 | Georgia | 90.8 |
| Florida | 82.8 | Montana | 95.7 |
| Colorado | 84.6 | Kentucky | 97.6 |
| New Mexico | 92.4 | Mississippi | 97.9 |
| West Virginia | 96.5 | Louisiana | 98.9 |
| Wisconsin | 97.6 | Tennessee | 99.9 |
| New Hampshire | 97.9 | Kansas | 99.9 |
| Oregon | 99.4 | South Carolina | 99.9 |
| Michigan | 99.5 | South Dakota | 100 |
| Minnesota | 99.6 | Arizona | 100 |
| Washington | 99.6 | North Dakota | 100 |
| Iowa | 99.6 | Texas | 100 |
| Pennsylvania | 99.8 | Alaska | 100 |
| New Jersey | 99.8 | Alabama | 100 |
| Maine | 99.9 | Nebraska | 100 |
| California | 100 | Wyoming | 100 |
| Connecticut | 100 | Idaho | 100 |
| Delaware | 100 | Oklahoma | 100 |
| Illinois | 100 | Utah | 100 |
| Maryland | 100 |
| Rhode Island | 100 |
| Massachusetts | 100 |
| New York | 100 |
| Vermont | 100 |
| Hawaii | 100 |
| DC | 100 |
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