DeSart and Holbrook Rolling October Forecast

October 10th - State Win Probabilities

ClintonTrump
StateWin
Probability
StateWin
Probability
Iowa53.5North Carolina51.5
Ohio63.8Missouri73.1
Nevada68.0Georgia73.6
Florida68.3Arizona77.3
Colorado72.9Indiana86.5
New Hampshire76.3South Carolina90.9
Wisconsin78.1Alaska92.5
Virginia78.1Mississippi93.1
Minnesota78.8South Dakota94.2
Pennsylvania83.4Texas94.5
Michigan89.0Tennessee95.0
Oregon90.0Montana95.6
New Mexico90.7Louisiana95.9
Maine93.4Kansas97.5
Connecticut95.5Arkansas98.3
Washington96.4Kentucky98.7
Delaware96.7West Virginia98.8
New Jersey97.8North Dakota98.9
California99.4Alabama98.9
Illinois99.5Nebraska99.0
Maryland99.5Oklahoma100
Rhode Island99.6Idaho100
New York99.6Wyoming100
Massachusetts100Utah100
Vermont100
Hawaii100
DC100


Based on these state win probabilities, the distribution of possible Electoral College outcomes looks like this:

Ultimately, the model suggests that Secretary Clinton has a 95.5% probability of winning, at a minimum,
the necessary 270 Electoral Votes she needs in order to win the election.
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