Department of
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DeSart and Holbrook Election Forecast

Rolling October Forecast Update


In addition to our September forecast model, we also have an extension of the model that provides a day-by-day updated forecast through the month of October and right up until Election Day.  We will provide those daily updates here.The October Forecast Model is essentially the same as our September model in that it uses the same variables as our September forecast model, except that it uses October polling data instead of September data. Furthermore, the October model gives greater weight to the poll variable, and less weight to the prior vote variable.

 

October 31: Our October forecast model projects that Hillary Clinton will receive 53.35% of the national two-party popular vote to Donald Trump's 46.65%. The model's Electoral College projection suggests that Clinton will win 347 electoral votes to Trump's 191. Overall, the model gives Secretary Clinton a 95.9% probability of winning at least the 270 Electoral College votes necessary to win the election.




DatePredicted National
Two-Party Popular Vote
Predicted Electoral
College Vote
State Win
Probabilities
Projected
Clinton Win
Probability
ClintonTrumpClintonTrump
10/3153.35%46.65%347191table95.87%
10/3053.37%46.63%347191table96.33%
10/2953.38%46.62%347191table96.44%
10/2853.30%46.70%347191table96.36%
10/2753.26%46.74%347191table96.27%
10/2653.18%46.82%347191table95.97%
10/2553.17%46.83%347191table96.42%
10/2453.40%46.60%347191table96.67%
10/2353.44%46.56%347191table96.71%
10/2253.39%46.61%347191table96.49%
10/2153.39%46.61%347191table96.45%
10/2053.10%46.90%341197table96.79%
10/1953.37%46.63%341197table97.60%
10/1853.16%46.84%347191table97.10%
10/1752.96%47.04%347191table96.81%
10/1652.91%47.09%347191table96.48%
10/1552.88%47.12%347191table96.13%
10/1452.88%47.12%347191table96.15%
10/1352.78%47.22%332206table95.95%
10/1252.75%47.25%332206table95.82%
10/1152.69%48.02%332206table95.64%
10/1052.66%47.34%332206table95.53%