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DeSart and Holbrook Election Forecast
Rolling October Forecast Update
In addition to our September forecast model, we also have an extension of the model that provides a day-by-day updated forecast through the month of October and right up until Election Day. We will provide those daily updates here.The October Forecast Model is essentially the same as our September model in that it uses the same variables as our September forecast model, except that it uses October polling data instead of September data. Furthermore, the October model gives greater weight to the poll variable, and less weight to the prior vote variable.
UPDATE - 11/1/2012: The rolling Forecast Model now projects that Barack Obama will receive 51.44% of the national two-party popular vote to Mitt Romney's 48.56%. The model's Electoral College prediction remains unchanged, projecting that President Obama will win 281 electoral votes to Mitt Romney's 257. Overall, the model gives President Obama an 86.84% probability of winning a majority of Electoral College votes and winning re-election.
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| Date | Predicted National Two-Party Popular Vote | Predicted Electoral College Vote | State Win Probabilities | Projected Obama Win Probability | Obama | Romney | Obama | Romney |
| 11/01 | 51.44% | 48.56% | 281 | 257 | table | 86.84% |
| 10/31 | 51.41% | 48.59% | 281 | 257 | table | 86.69% |
| 10/30 | 51.38% | 48.62% | 281 | 257 | table | 86.66% |
| 10/29 | 51.39% | 48.61% | 281 | 257 | table | 86.82% |
| 10/28 | 51.37% | 48.63% | 281 | 257 | table | 86.53% |
| 10/27 | 51.47% | 48.53% | 281 | 257 | table | 87.01% |
| 10/26 | 51.46% | 48.54% | 281 | 257 | table | 87.12% |
| 10/25 | 51.51% | 48.49% | 281 | 257 | table | 87.02% |
| 10/24 | 51.46% | 48.54% | 281 | 257 | table | 86.72% |
| 10/23 | 51.64% | 48.36% | 281 | 257 | table | 86.34% |
| 10/22 | 51.63% | 48.37% | 281 | 257 | table | 86.16% |
| 10/21 | 51.64% | 48.36% | 281 | 257 | table | 86.30% |
| 10/20 | 51.63% | 48.37% | 281 | 257 | table | 86.15% |
| 10/19 | 51.64% | 48.36% | 281 | 257 | table | 85.84% |
| 10/18 | 51.70% | 48.30% | 281 | 257 | table | 85.13% |
| 10/17 | 51.72% | 48.28% | 281 | 257 | table | 85.44% |
| 10/16 | 51.71% | 48.29% | 281 | 257 | table | 83.81% |
| 10/15 | 51.83% | 48.17% | 281 | 257 | table | 85.39% |
| 10/14 | 51.82% | 48.18% | 281 | 257 | table | 84.80% |
| 10/13 | 51.75% | 48.25% | 281 | 257 | table | 84.95% |
| 10/12 | 51.70% | 48.30% | 281 | 257 | table | 83.02% |
| 10/11 | 51.73% | 48.27% | 310 | 228 | table | 86.89% |
| 10/10 | 51.54% | 48.16% | 281 | 257 | table | 80.40% |