DeSart and Holbrook Rolling October Forecast

November 7th - State Win Probabilities

ClintonTrump
StateWin
Probability
StateWin
Probability
North Carolina51.2Arizona79.6
Iowa54.1Georgia87.6
Ohio56.5Missouri95.9
Florida69.7South Carolina97.9
Nevada76.1Indiana99.5
Colorado85.2Texas99.7
Virginia91.0Mississippi99.9
New Hampshire91.6Alaska99.9
Pennsylvania92.6Tennessee99.9
Wisconsin93.9Louisiana100
Minnesota96.9Montana100
New Mexico97.1Kansas100
Michigan97.7South Dakota100
Oregon99.6Arkansas100
Maine99.8Alabama100
Washington99.9Kentucky100
Delaware100North Dakota100
Connecticut100Nebraska100
New Jersey100West Virginia100
Illinois100Utah100
Rhode Island100Oklahoma100
Maryland100Idaho100
New York100Wyoming100
California100
Massachusetts100
Hawaii100
Vermont100
DC100


Based on these state win probabilities, the distribution of possible Electoral College outcomes looks like this:

Ultimately, the model suggests that Secretary Clinton has a 98.6% probability of winning, at a minimum,
the necessary 270 Electoral Votes she needs in order to win the election.
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