DeSart and Holbrook Rolling October Forecast

November 5th - State Win Probabilities

ClintonTrump
StateWin
Probability
StateWin
Probability
North Carolina54.6Arizona77.9
Iowa55.4Georgia84.0
Ohio59.1Missouri96.0
Florida71.9South Carolina98.1
Nevada75.7Indiana99.4
Colorado86.3Texas99.6
Virginia92.3Mississippi99.8
New Hampshire92.5Alaska99.9
Wisconsin93.4Tennessee99.9
Pennsylvania93.8Louisiana100
Minnesota97.2Montana100
New Mexico98.3Kansas100
Michigan98.4South Dakota100
Oregon99.7Arkansas100
Maine99.8Alabama100
Washington99.9Nebraska100
Connecticut100Kentucky100
Delaware100North Dakota100
New Jersey100West Virginia100
Illinois100Utah100
Rhode Island100Oklahoma100
New York100Idaho100
Maryland100Wyoming100
California100
Massachusetts100
Hawaii100
Vermont100
DC100


Based on these state win probabilities, the distribution of possible Electoral College outcomes looks like this:

Ultimately, the model suggests that Secretary Clinton has a 99.1% probability of winning, at a minimum,
the necessary 270 Electoral Votes she needs in order to win the election.
BACK