DeSart and Holbrook Rolling October Forecast

November 3rd - State Win Probabilities

ClintonTrump
StateWin
Probability
StateWin
Probability
Iowa55.2Arizona77.1
North Carolina55.3Georgia84.4
Ohio59.2Missouri95.9
Florida72.4South Carolina98.2
Nevada75.8Indiana99.3
Colorado87.1Texas99.6
Virginia92.5Mississippi99.7
Wisconsin93.3Alaska99.9
New Hampshire93.8Tennessee99.9
Pennsylvania94.4Louisiana100
Minnesota97.5Montana100
New Mexico98.4Kansas100
Michigan98.5South Dakota100
Oregon99.7Alabama100
Maine99.8Akansas100
Washington99.9Nebraska100
Connecticut100Kentucky100
Delaware100North Dakota100
New Jersey100West Virginia100
Illinois100Utah100
Rhode Island100Oklahoma100
New York100Idaho100
Maryland100Wyoming100
California100
Massachusetts100
Hawaii100
Vermont100
DC100


Based on these state win probabilities, the distribution of possible Electoral College outcomes looks like this:

Ultimately, the model suggests that Secretary Clinton has a 99.2% probability of winning, at a minimum,
the necessary 270 Electoral Votes she needs in order to win the election.
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