DeSart and Holbrook Rolling October Forecast

November 2nd - State Win Probabilities

ClintonTrump
StateWin
Probability
StateWin
Probability
North Carolina53.8Arizona78.5
Iowa61.1Georgia85.2
Ohio62.5Missouri95.7
Florida73.6South Carolina98.5
Nevada78.0Indiana99.3
Colorado87.4Texas99.6
Virginia94.0Mississippi99.8
Wisconsin94.5Alaska99.9
Pennsylvania95.4Tennessee99.9
New Hampshire96.0Louisiana100
Minnesota98.0Montana100
Michigan98.7Kansas100
New Mexico99.0South Dakota100
Oregon99.7Arkansas100
Maine99.9Alabama100
Washington100North Dakota100
Connecticut100Nebraska100
Delaware100Kentucky100
New Jersey100West Virginia100
Illinois100Utah100
Rhode Island100Oklahoma100
Maryland100Idaho100
New York100Wyoming100
California100
Massachusetts100
Hawaii100
Vermont100
DC100


Based on these state win probabilities, the distribution of possible Electoral College outcomes looks like this:

Ultimately, the model suggests that Secretary Clinton has a 99.2% probability of winning, at a minimum,
the necessary 270 Electoral Votes she needs in order to win the election.
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