DeSart and Holbrook Rolling October Forecast

November 1st - State Win Probabilities

ClintonTrump
StateWin
Probability
StateWin
Probability
North Carolina56.8Arizona75.8
Iowa59.0Georgia82.2
Ohio62.2Missouri94.7
Florida73.6South Carolina98.7
Nevada78.0Indiana99.0
Colorado87.4Texas99.3
Wisconsin94.0Mississippi99.4
Virginia94.5Alaska99.9
Pennsylvania95.4Tennessee99.9
New Hampshire96.0Louisiana100
Minnesota98.0Montana100
Michigan98.7Kansas100
New Mexico99.0South Dakota100
Oregon99.7Arkansas100
Maine99.9Alabama100
Washington100Nebraska100
Connecticut100North Dakota100
Delaware100Kentucky100
New Jersey100West Virginia100
Illinois100Utah100
Rhode Island100Idaho100
New York100Oklahoma100
Maryland100Wyoming100
California100
Hawaii100
Massachusetts100
Vermont100
DC100


Based on these state win probabilities, the distribution of possible Electoral College outcomes looks like this:

Ultimately, the model suggests that Secretary Clinton has a 99.4% probability of winning, at a minimum,
the necessary 270 Electoral Votes she needs in order to win the election.
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