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DeSart and Holbrook Election Forecast
Rolling Forecast Update
In addition to our September forecast model, we also have an extension of the model that provides a day-by-day updated forecast through the month of October and right up until Election Day. We will provide those daily updates here.This rolling Forecast Model is essentially the same as our September model in that it uses the same variables as our September forecast model, except that it uses October/November polling data instead of September data. Furthermore, this model gives greater weight to the poll variable, and less weight to the prior vote variable.
UPDATE - FINAL: The rolling Forecast Model now projects that Barack Obama will receive 51.37% of the national two-party popular vote to Mitt Romney's 48.63%. In the Electoral College forecast, President Obama is now predicted to win Virginia. As a result, the model now projects that President Obama will win 303 electoral votes to Mitt Romney's 235. Overall, the model gives President Obama an 88.62% probability of winning a majority of Electoral College votes and winning re-election.
UPDATE: Election Night: The Paths to 270 - What our model suggests you should look for, and when to look for it on election night.
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| Date | Predicted National Two-Party Popular Vote | Predicted Electoral College Vote | State Win Probabilities | Projected Obama Win Probability | Obama | Romney | Obama | Romney |
| 11/06 | 51.37% | 48.63% | 303 | 235 | table | 88.62% |
| 11/05 | 51.37% | 48.63% | 290 | 248 | table | 87.69% |
| 11/04 | 51.41% | 48.59% | 281 | 257 | table | 87.42% |
| 11/03 | 51.43% | 48.57% | 290 | 248 | table | 87.47% |
| 11/02 | 51.43% | 48.57% | 281 | 257 | table | 87.05% |
| 11/01 | 51.44% | 48.56% | 281 | 257 | table | 86.84% |
| 10/31 | 51.41% | 48.59% | 281 | 257 | table | 86.69% |
| 10/30 | 51.38% | 48.62% | 281 | 257 | table | 86.66% |
| 10/29 | 51.39% | 48.61% | 281 | 257 | table | 86.82% |
| 10/28 | 51.37% | 48.63% | 281 | 257 | table | 86.53% |
| 10/27 | 51.47% | 48.53% | 281 | 257 | table | 87.01% |
| 10/26 | 51.46% | 48.54% | 281 | 257 | table | 87.12% |
| 10/25 | 51.51% | 48.49% | 281 | 257 | table | 87.02% |
| 10/24 | 51.46% | 48.54% | 281 | 257 | table | 86.72% |
| 10/23 | 51.64% | 48.36% | 281 | 257 | table | 86.34% |
| 10/22 | 51.63% | 48.37% | 281 | 257 | table | 86.16% |
| 10/21 | 51.64% | 48.36% | 281 | 257 | table | 86.30% |
| 10/20 | 51.63% | 48.37% | 281 | 257 | table | 86.15% |
| 10/19 | 51.64% | 48.36% | 281 | 257 | table | 85.84% |
| 10/18 | 51.70% | 48.30% | 281 | 257 | table | 85.13% |
| 10/17 | 51.72% | 48.28% | 281 | 257 | table | 85.44% |
| 10/16 | 51.71% | 48.29% | 281 | 257 | table | 83.81% |
| 10/15 | 51.83% | 48.17% | 281 | 257 | table | 85.39% |
| 10/14 | 51.82% | 48.18% | 281 | 257 | table | 84.80% |
| 10/13 | 51.75% | 48.25% | 281 | 257 | table | 84.95% |
| 10/12 | 51.70% | 48.30% | 281 | 257 | table | 83.02% |
| 10/11 | 51.73% | 48.27% | 310 | 228 | table | 86.89% |
| 10/10 | 51.54% | 48.16% | 281 | 257 | table | 80.40% |