Rolling October Forecast

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History & Political Science

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DeSart and Holbrook Election Forecast

Rolling October Forecast Update

In addition to our September forecast model, we also have an extension of the model that provides a day-by-day updated forecast through the month of October and right up until Election Day. We will provide those daily updates here.The October Forecast Model is essentially the same as our September model in that it uses the same variables as our September forecast model, except that it uses October polling data instead of September data. Furthermore, the October model gives greater weight to the poll variable, and less weight to the prior vote variable.

November 7: Our final forecast of the 2016 presidential election projects that Hillary Clinton will defeat Donald Trump, receiving 52.83% of the national two-party popular vote to Donald Trump's 47.17%. The model's Electoral College projection suggests that Clinton will win 347 electoral votes to Trump's 191. Overall, the model gives Secretary Clinton a 98.6% probability of winning at least the 270 Electoral College votes necessary to win the election.

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Below are the probability distributions for both the popular vote and Electoral College vote outcomes projected by our model in 100,000 election simulations.
In each instance, scenarios in which Secretary Clinton wins the popular vote and Electoral College all fall within the 95% confidence interval.

Date	Predicted National Two-Party Popular Vote		Predicted Electoral College Vote		State Win Probabilities	Projected Clinton Win Probability
Date	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump	State Win Probabilities	Projected Clinton Win Probability
11/7	52.83%	47.17%	347	191	table	98.59%
11/6	52.97%	47.03%	347	191	table	98.94%
11/5	53.06%	46.94%	347	191	table	99.10%
11/4	53.09%	46.91%	347	191	table	99.14%
11/3	53.12%	46.88%	347	191	table	99.19%
11/2	53.09%	46.91%	347	191	table	99.25%
11/1	53.35%	46.65%	347	191	table	99.48%
10/31	53.35%	46.65%	347	191	table	95.87%
10/30	53.37%	46.63%	347	191	table	96.33%
10/29	53.38%	46.62%	347	191	table	96.44%
10/28	53.30%	46.70%	347	191	table	96.36%
10/27	53.26%	46.74%	347	191	table	96.27%
10/26	53.18%	46.82%	347	191	table	95.97%
10/25	53.17%	46.83%	347	191	table	96.42%
10/24	53.40%	46.60%	347	191	table	96.67%
10/23	53.44%	46.56%	347	191	table	96.71%
10/22	53.39%	46.61%	347	191	table	96.49%
10/21	53.39%	46.61%	347	191	table	96.45%
10/20	53.10%	46.90%	341	197	table	96.79%
10/19	53.37%	46.63%	341	197	table	97.60%
10/18	53.16%	46.84%	347	191	table	97.10%
10/17	52.96%	47.04%	347	191	table	96.81%
10/16	52.91%	47.09%	347	191	table	96.48%
10/15	52.88%	47.12%	347	191	table	96.13%
10/14	52.88%	47.12%	347	191	table	96.15%
10/13	52.78%	47.22%	332	206	table	95.95%
10/12	52.75%	47.25%	332	206	table	95.82%
10/11	52.69%	48.02%	332	206	table	95.64%
10/10	52.66%	47.34%	332	206	table	95.53%