Department of
History & Political Science



Receive daily updates
of this forecast until
Election Day
via Twitter

 

Presidential Election Forecasting

 

DeSart and Holbrook Forecast Model

Dr. Jay DeSart, Associate Professor of Political Science - Utah Valley University
Dr. Thomas Holbrook, Wilder Crane Professor of Government - University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee

For details about the DeSart Long-Range forecast model, those can be found here

Find details about our October daily rolling forecast here.

October 3, 2016 - The election forecast model we have developed predicts a victory for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump on November 8th.

The model, which is based on state and national polling data as well as state historical voting patterns, predicts that Secretary Clinton will receive 52.05% of the national 2-party popular vote to Donald Trumps's 47.95%. Furthermore, the model predicts that Secretary Clinton will win the Electoral College vote, 326 - 212.

The model that we have used to generate this forecast was originally published in the International Journal of Forecasting in 1999, and has undergone significant refinement since that time. Our most recent update was presented at the 2013 Meeting of the Western Political Science Association.

It has been used to generate fairly accurate predictions of the last four presidential elections.  Our research, which looks at data from the elections from 1992 - 2012, shows that the model correctly predicts 93% of all state outcomes, predicts the national popular vote to within an average of 0.6% of the 2-party vote, and predicts the Electoral College vote to within 19 Electoral Votes.




Here are the state predictions, along with their respective win probabilities, as projected by the model:
ClintonTrump
StateWin
Probability
StateWin
Probability
Ohio53.6Iowa53.7
Florida59.1North Carolina63.4
Nevada66.4Arizona90.2
Colorado70.7Georgia93.0
Virginia74.3Missouri95.5
Wisconsin80.4South Carolina98.2
New Hampshire88.3Mississippi99.7
Pennsylvania88.6Indiana99.7
Michigan89.6Arkansas99.7
Minnesota93.2Louisiana99.9
Maine97.4South Dakota99.9
New Mexico97.9Tennessee99.9
Oregon98.6Montana99.9
Washington99.5Texas100
New Jersey99.9West Virginia100
Connecticut99.9Kansas100
Delaware100Alaska100
Illinois100North Dakota100
Rhode Island100Alabama100
Maryland100Kentucky100
California100Nebraska100
New York100Oklahoma100
Massachusetts100Idaho100
Vermont100Utah100
Hawaii100Wyoming100
DC100


Based on these state-level projections, the distribution of possible Electoral College and Popular Vote outcomes looks like this:

     
Ultimately, the model suggests that Secretary Clinton has a 91.2% probability of winning, at a minimum,
the necessary 270 Electoral Votes she needs in order to win, and a 99.99% probability of winning a majority of the national 2-party popular vote