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Presidential Election Forecasting
DeSart and Holbrook Forecast ModelDr. Jay DeSart, Associate Professor of Political Science - Utah Valley University
Dr. Thomas Holbrook, Wilder Crane Professor of Government - University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
For details about the DeSart Long-Range forecast model, those can be found here
Find details about our October daily rolling forecast here.
October 3, 2016 - The election forecast model we have developed predicts a victory for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump on November 8th.
The model, which is based on state and national polling data as well as state historical voting patterns, predicts that Secretary Clinton will receive 52.05% of the national 2-party popular vote to Donald Trumps's 47.95%. Furthermore, the model predicts that Secretary Clinton will win the Electoral College vote, 326 - 212.
The model that we have used to generate this forecast was originally published in the International Journal of Forecasting in 1999, and has undergone significant refinement since that time. Our most recent update was presented at the 2013 Meeting of the Western Political Science Association.
It has been used to generate fairly accurate predictions of the last four presidential elections. Our research, which looks at data from the elections from 1992 - 2012, shows that the model correctly predicts 93% of all state outcomes, predicts the national popular vote to within an average of 0.6% of the 2-party vote, and predicts the Electoral College vote to within 19 Electoral Votes.
Here are the state predictions, along with their respective win probabilities, as projected by the model:
Based on these state-level projections, the distribution of possible Electoral College and Popular Vote outcomes looks like this:
the necessary 270 Electoral Votes she needs in order to win, and a 99.99% probability of winning a majority of the national 2-party popular vote